Collapse Sequence in America: What's Coming and How to Prepare
I. Understanding the Starting Position
America is not the "most prosperous country" in any meaningful sense for most of its inhabitants. It's the wealthiest in aggregate, but that wealth is catastrophically concentrated. Understanding the actual conditions is essential:
Current Reality (2025):
40% of Americans cannot handle a $400 emergency
Medical bankruptcy is the leading cause of personal bankruptcy
Life expectancy declining for the first time in peacetime
Homelessness at crisis levels in major cities
Infrastructure rated D+ by civil engineers
Public trust in institutions at historic lows
Political polarization approaching civil war levels (per conflict scholars)
Climate disasters now annual rather than exceptional
The prosperity is extractive prosperity—the final phase of a system converting everything into privately captured wealth while the foundation crumbles.
This means: America is actually more vulnerable to collapse than less "prosperous" nations. More concentrated wealth, more brittle systems, more dependent on complex supply chains, less community resilience, less experience with scarcity.
II. The Collapse Sequence: 2025-2045
Phase 1: Cascading System Stress (2025-2030) - NOW
What's Already Happening:
Climate Acceleration:
Heat waves killing thousands annually (Southwest, Southeast becoming marginally habitable)
Wildfire seasons now year-round in Western states
Hurricanes intensifying faster, causing unprecedented damage
Crop failures increasing, food prices rising 5-10% annually
Water stress acute in Colorado River basin, California Central Valley
Insurance markets beginning to fail in high-risk areas
Economic Brittleness:
Debt at unsustainable levels (federal, corporate, consumer)
Commercial real estate collapse accelerating (work-from-home, retail closures)
Regional banks failing as commercial loans default
Inflation volatile, eroding purchasing power
Labor markets hollowing out (automation + offshoring)
Gig economy forcing precarity on increasing percentage of workers
Housing unaffordable in most metro areas, homelessness expanding
Political Dysfunction:
Institutions losing legitimacy across political spectrum
Election outcomes increasingly contested
State-level conflicts with federal authority intensifying
Supreme Court delegitimizing itself through partisan decisions
Congress functionally paralyzed
Political violence increasing (rhetoric → intimidation → actual violence)
Authoritarian movements gaining power, testing democratic guardrails
Infrastructure Decay:
Power grids failing during extreme weather
Water systems contaminated (lead, PFAS, agricultural runoff)
Roads, bridges, dams past design life, catastrophic failures increasing
Internet infrastructure vulnerable to attack, monopoly control
Healthcare system in permanent crisis (staffing, access, cost)
Social Fabric Shredding:
Trust between groups at historic lows
Conspiracy theories replacing shared reality
Communities fragmenting along political/cultural lines
Mental health crisis (suicide, addiction, depression at epidemic levels)
Mass shootings normalized
Public education system under deliberate attack
What This Phase Feels Like:
Things are bad and getting worse, but systems still mostly function. You can still:
Buy groceries (though they're expensive)
Get medical care (if you can afford it)
Call 911 (they might come)
Expect mail delivery
Assume tap water is safe
Trust elections happen (even if results are contested)
The key marker: You're living with continuous crisis, but not yet system failure. Life is degraded, stressful, expensive, frightening—but technically operational.
Phase 2: Legitimacy Collapse (2030-2035)
Trigger Events (multiple possible):
Climate Catastrophe:
Category 6 hurricane devastates Miami or Houston, rendering city uninhabitable
Multi-year megadrought forces agricultural collapse in breadbasket regions
Wet bulb temperatures kill thousands in a single heat wave (Phoenix, Dallas)
Wildfire destroys major Western city (Los Angeles suburbs, Portland)
Multiple "500-year floods" in consecutive years overwhelm FEMA
Economic Collapse:
Major financial crisis (larger than 2008, no effective bailout capacity)
Dollar loses reserve currency status, inflation spikes to 20-30%
Multiple state governments functionally insolvent
Pension systems collapse, affecting millions of retirees
Supply chain breakdown (fuel, food, medicine shortages lasting weeks/months)
Political Crisis:
Contested presidential election, both sides claim victory, dual governments
Assassination of major political figure triggering sustained violence
States openly defying federal authority (succession threats)
Military splits loyalties or refuses orders
Supreme Court decision triggers constitutional crisis
Attempted coup (successful or not, legitimacy destroyed either way)
What Happens:
The federal government loses the ability to maintain order and deliver services across large portions of the country. Not because it's abolished, but because:
People stop believing it has authority
States refuse to implement federal policy
Tax collection becomes unreliable
Agencies can't recruit/retain staff
Violence makes governance impossible in some regions
Resources insufficient to respond to multiple simultaneous crises
Regional Fragmentation Begins:
States and metro areas start operating independently:
"Blue" states form mutual aid compacts, pool resources
"Red" states refuse federal regulation, create parallel systems
Metro areas (even in red states) operate differently than rural areas
Border regions develop their own arrangements
Tribal nations assert sovereignty more forcefully
Critical Services Become Unreliable:
Power outages measured in days/weeks, not hours
Water safety cannot be guaranteed
Police response times extend to hours or non-existent
Hospitals turn away patients, triage becomes extreme
Food distribution breaks down (not shortage, but logistics failure)
Mail service sporadic
Internet service unreliable
Schools close for extended periods
What This Phase Feels Like:
You cannot assume systems work. Every day requires checking: Do we have power? Is water safe? Are roads passable? Will stores open? Is it safe to go out?
You're living in a failed state, even if it's not officially called that. Government exists on paper, not in practice. You depend on local networks, mutual aid, whatever organization still functions in your immediate area.
Phase 3: Forced Reorganization (2035-2045)
Two Paths Diverge:
Path A: Authoritarian Consolidation (higher probability: 60-70%)
In regions where wealth is concentrated and control possible:
Private military/police enforce order (serving property, not people)
Essential services privatized, available only to those who can pay
Surveillance state to prevent resistance
Labor controlled through debt peonage, lack of alternatives
Climate refugees turned away or exploited
Democracy fully theater, decisions made by oligarchy
Environmental protection abandoned, final extraction phase
Think: gated communities with private security, water, power while surrounding areas are sacrifice zones. Company towns with digital scrip. Explicit class hierarchy enforced by violence.
Modern feudalism: a small percentage live in protected enclaves, everyone else survives as labor or not at all.
Path B: Distributed Reorganization (lower probability: 30-40%)
In regions where community organization succeeds:
Local governance based on actual democracy (town meetings, councils)
Essential services provided through mutual aid, cooperatives
Food/water/energy systems localized and shared
Labor organized through unions, cooperatives
Climate refugees integrated (because labor needed, humanity retained)
Decisions made by those affected
Environmental regeneration necessary for survival
Think: Mondragon at regional scale. Buurtzorg principles applied to multiple services. Genuine community self-governance because there's no functional alternative.
Most Likely Reality: Patchwork
America fragments into multiple realities:
Some regions authoritarian enclaves
Some regions democratic reorganization
Some regions chaotic violence
Some regions depopulated (uninhabitable due to climate)
Borders between regions contested, porous, dangerous
Interstate travel becomes difficult/dangerous. Regional identities strengthen. "America" as a unified country is historical memory, not current reality.
What This Phase Feels Like:
Depends entirely on which region you're in and what form of organization succeeded. But everywhere:
The old system is clearly dead (no pretense of return to "normal")
New systems are emerging (better or worse than what they replaced)
Survival depends on community, not institutions
Resource scarcity is permanent condition
Climate disasters are continuous backdrop
Violence is routine possibility
III. Regional Variations: Where Matters Enormously
Best Odds Regions:
Pacific Northwest (Western Oregon, Washington):
Water abundant (for now)
Mild climate (heating up but still temperate)
Strong progressive governance tradition
Existing cooperative/mutual aid culture
Tech infrastructure (useful if maintained)
Agricultural capacity
Problems: Wildfire, earthquake risk, Cascadia subduction zone
Great Lakes (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan):
Fresh water (increasingly valuable)
Agricultural capacity
Harsh winters (natural population control)
Strong cooperative tradition (Scandinavian heritage)
Less climate vulnerable than coasts
Problems: Rust belt economic devastation, right-wing extremism in rural areas
Northeast Corridor (Modified):
Existing infrastructure density
Educational/medical institutions
Strong state governments
Problems: Massive population, limited agricultural land, hurricane exposure, heat waves
Worst Odds Regions:
Southwest (Arizona, Nevada, Southern California):
Water scarcity already critical
Heat will become lethal
Massive population unsustainable
Agricultural collapse certain
Timeline: Uninhabitable by 2040s for most
Southeast (Florida, Gulf Coast):
Hurricane intensification
Sea level rise
Heat + humidity = wet bulb temperature deaths
Water table contamination (saltwater intrusion)
Insurance market already collapsing
Timeline: Major cities abandoned by 2040s
Great Plains (Agricultural regions):
Aquifer depletion (Ogallala drawing down)
Climate chaos destroying reliable growing seasons
Rural depopulation accelerating
Timeline: Industrial agriculture collapses 2030s
Wildcard Regions:
Appalachia:
Isolated, poor, but potentially resilient
Strong local culture, mutual aid traditions
Agricultural knowledge retained
Problems: Extractive history, opioid crisis, right-wing extremism
Mountain West:
Low population density
Some water (snowpack dependent, declining)
Libertarian culture (mixed blessing)
Problems: Fire, extreme weather, ideological conflicts
IV. How Your Children Prepare: Practical Framework
A. Mental/Psychological Preparation
Most Important: Clear Seeing
Your children must understand:
The system will fail in their lifetime (not might, will)
No rescue is coming from institutions
Their survival depends on community, skills, relationships
Comfort and security are historical anomalies, not rights
Adaptation is possible, but requires radical reorientation
Avoid These Psychological Traps:
Normalcy bias: "It can't happen here" → It is happening here
Individualism: "I'll be fine alone" → No one survives alone
Techno-optimism: "Innovation will fix it" → Innovation serves extraction
Doomerism: "Nothing matters" → Preparation matters enormously
Prepper delusion: "I'll survive in my bunker" → Bunkers become tombs
Cultivate:
Realistic assessment: Clear seeing without panic
Community orientation: Your survival is collective
Adaptability: Rigid plans fail, principles endure
Emotional resilience: Grief is appropriate, paralysis is not
Long-term thinking: Decisions made for decades, not quarters
B. Skills Acquisition (Priority Order)
Tier 1: Immediate Survival
First aid/medical response (field medicine, trauma care)
Water purification/testing
Food preservation (canning, drying, fermentation)
Basic sanitation (waste management without infrastructure)
Fire starting/management
Shelter repair/weatherproofing
Physical fitness (walking long distances, manual labor capacity)
Tier 2: Community Contribution
Growing food (gardening, permaculture, seed saving)
Food preparation/cooking (feeding groups efficiently)
Repair skills (mechanical, electrical, plumbing, carpentry)
Textile work (mending, sewing, making clothes/blankets)
Teaching (knowledge transmission is critical)
Conflict mediation (community cohesion under stress)
Childcare/eldercare (collective care systems)
Tier 3: Specialized Value
Nursing/midwifery (medical care without hospitals)
Mechanical repair (keeping vehicles, tools, equipment operational)
Electrical work (maintaining/adapting power systems)
Welding/metalwork (fabrication and repair)
Computer/IT (while digital infrastructure lasts)
Ham radio operation (communication when internet fails)
Engineering (water systems, structural assessment, energy systems)
Tier 4: Cultural Continuity
Music/art (maintains humanity under stress)
Storytelling (transmits knowledge, builds cohesion)
History/analysis (prevents repeating failures)
Writing/documentation (preserves knowledge)
Teaching children (next generation needs preparation)
How to Acquire:
Not through degrees or certifications (those will be worthless), but through:
Apprenticeships with practitioners
Community education programs (tool libraries, maker spaces, community colleges)
Practice (start doing these things now, while mistakes aren't fatal)
Building teaching capacity (learn to teach what you know)
C. Relationship/Network Building
Most Critical Preparation
Your children's survival probability is directly proportional to the strength of their community networks. Lone wolves die. Communities survive.
Build Now:
Geographic Community:
Know your neighbors (actual relationships, not just awareness)
Participate in local governance (town meetings, school boards, community organizations)
Join/create mutual aid networks
Establish tool-sharing, skill-sharing arrangements
Create communication systems (phone trees, group chats that work offline)
Affinity Networks:
Professional networks (others with your skills who can coordinate)
Political/ideological alignment (organizing requires shared analysis)
Religious/spiritual communities (if that's meaningful to you)
Hobby/interest groups that teach useful skills (gardening clubs, maker spaces, food preservation groups)
Critical Mass for Viability:
A functioning community needs:
50-150 people (Dunbar's number—can maintain relationships)
Diverse skills (no one person/family can know everything)
Shared values/decision-making process
Physical proximity (mutual aid requires physical possibility)
Resource access (water, food production capacity, shelter)
What to Look For in Community:
Demonstrated mutual aid (already helping each other)
Clear-eyed about what's coming (not denying reality)
Democratic decision-making (not hierarchical control)
Practical skills (not just ideological alignment)
Intergenerational (kids, working adults, elders all present)
Conflict resolution capacity (stress will cause conflicts)
D. Resource Positioning
Not Prepping, Preparing
The goal isn't a bunker full of canned goods. The goal is reducing dependence on systems that will fail.
Housing:
Ideal:
Own (not rent)—eviction is existential threat during collapse
Small enough to maintain/heat without grid power
Good bones (structurally sound, can be weatherized)
Access to water (well, spring, reliable municipal that could be localized)
Space for food production (yard for garden, community garden access)
Community nearby (not isolated)
Climate appropriate (not in flood zone, fire zone, hurricane zone if avoidable)
Location Hierarchy:
Best: Climate-resilient region, strong community, owned home with land
Good: Climate-vulnerable but strong community, owned home
Acceptable: Climate-resilient, weak community, owned home
Poor: Climate-vulnerable, weak community, renting
Disaster: Climate-disaster zone, no community, renting
If you cannot own:
Join housing cooperative
Build strong tenant union
Establish community land trust
Create mutual housing support network
Food:
Not stockpiling, producing:
Learn to grow food (start now, fail now, learn now)
Seed saving (heirloom varieties, adapted to local conditions)
Food preservation skills (practiced, not theoretical)
Community food systems (gardens, coops, CSAs you're involved with)
Relationships with local farmers
Knowledge of wild edibles (backup, not primary)
How much to store:
3-6 months of staples (rice, beans, flour, salt, oil, sugar)
Not for long-term survival, but bridge during crisis
Rotate stock (eat and replace, so nothing goes bad)
Focus on shelf-stable, calorie-dense, culturally appropriate
Water:
Absolute Priority:
Location with water access (well, spring, river, lake)
Water purification capability (filters, chemicals, boiling capacity)
Storage (for disruptions, not permanent supply)
Knowledge of local water sources
Energy:
Reducing Dependence:
Weatherization (heat/cool with less energy)
Alternative heat source (wood stove, rocket mass heater)
Solar panels if possible (but not dependent on them)
Manual alternatives to electric tools
Warm clothes, blankets (heating bodies, not whole spaces)
Not about off-grid luxury, about surviving grid failure
Medical:
Basic supplies:
First aid comprehensive kit
Prescription medications (if possible, stockpile 3-6 months)
Antibiotics (fish antibiotics, veterinary sources if necessary)
Pain management (ibuprofen, acetaminophen in quantity)
Dental supplies (temporary filling material, pain relief)
Chronic disease management (if diabetic, insulin access is existential)
Knowledge:
First aid/CPR certification
Wilderness medicine training
Dental emergency management
Childbirth (if relevant age)
Herbal medicine (backup, not primary)
Tools:
Manual versions of everything:
Hand tools (saws, drills, hammers, wrenches)
Kitchen tools (manual grain mill, hand-crank food processor)
Garden tools (shovels, hoes, rakes—quality that lasts)
Repair tools (sewing kit, patching materials)
Learn to maintain/sharpen tools
Defense:
Complicated, region-dependent:
In some regions, firearms are necessary (rural, high-crime)
In others, firearms increase danger (escalation, accidents)
Training is essential if you have weapons (untrained gun owners are dangerous to themselves)
Community defense is more effective than individual
Deterrence > confrontation
Best defense is strong community (there's no "other" to defend against)
E. Financial Positioning
Paradox: Money matters less and less, but still matters now
Priorities:
Eliminate debt (debt becomes weapon during collapse)
Mortgage is acceptable if house is good location
Consumer debt is chain around neck
Student loans won't be forgiven, will be used for control
Minimize expenses (reduces dependence on income)
Small house, paid off
No car payment (own used vehicle outright, learn to maintain)
Minimal subscriptions/services
Liquid emergency fund (3-6 months expenses)
For bridging between jobs, crises
Not for long-term (inflation will erode)
Invest in skills, tools, relationships (more valuable than savings)
Training/education in useful skills
Quality tools that last
Supporting community infrastructure
Diversify stored value (don't trust any single system)
Some cash (for short-term disruptions)
Some hard goods (tools, materials)
Some skills (knowledge that travels with you)
Some community credit (relationships, reputation)
Do NOT:
Expect investments/retirement accounts to matter (likely to be seized, inflated away, or worthless)
Plan for institutional support (pension, social security—assume gone)
Believe insurance will pay out (industry collapsing)
Trust banks beyond FDIC limits (bail-ins possible)
F. Work/Income Strategy
While the system still functions:
Criteria for job/career:
Useful skills (transferable to post-collapse: medical, construction, agriculture, teaching)
Union if possible (collective power matters)
Local if possible (can't work remotely if internet fails)
Minimize commute (fuel will be expensive/unavailable)
Build relationships (coworkers are future mutual aid network)
Avoid:
Finance industry (pure extraction, no post-collapse value)
Advertising/marketing (worthless skills)
Middle management (purely institutional role)
Jobs requiring complex supply chains (too fragile)
Jobs in climate-disaster zones (temporary)
Develop side income:
Useful skills you can trade (repair, growing food, making things)
Teaching skills you have
Creating rather than consuming
G. Children's Education
Formal education's value is declining rapidly
Priorities:
Useful Skills Over Credentials
Trade skills (electrician, plumber, carpenter, mechanic)
Medical (nursing, EMT, midwifery)
Agricultural (farming, permaculture, animal husbandry)
Teaching (knowledge transmission)
Critical Thinking Over Memorization
Systems thinking (understanding how things connect)
Problem-solving (adaptability to new situations)
Historical analysis (learning from past collapses)
Scientific method (empirical testing vs. belief)
Physical Capability
Manual labor capacity
Walking long distances
Physical resilience to weather
Self-defense if necessary
Emotional/Social Intelligence
Conflict resolution
Collaboration
Leadership without authority
Emotional regulation under stress
Cultural Knowledge
Music, art, storytelling (humanity under stress)
History (what worked, what failed, why)
Philosophy/ethics (decision-making when no rules)
Approach:
Community college for trades, not university for theory
Apprenticeships over classrooms
Practical experience over credentials
Teaching them to teach (knowledge transmission)
H. Political/Organizational Preparation
Your children need to understand power and how to build it
Join/Create Organizations:
Labor Unions:
Collective power in workplace
Experience with organizing
Resources during crisis
Potential seed for future governance
Cooperatives:
Democratic decision-making experience
Alternative ownership models
Mutual support structure
Template for post-collapse organization
Mutual Aid Networks:
Immediate crisis response
Community building
Trust development
Practice for system failure
Local Government:
Town councils, school boards
Experience with governance
Relationships with officials
Understanding how power actually works
Tenant Unions/Housing Coops:
Protecting housing access
Collective power
Experience with organizing
What to Learn:
How to facilitate meetings (democratic process)
How to make collective decisions (consensus, voting, hybrids)
How to manage conflict (mediation, negotiation)
How to build trust (transparency, accountability)
How to organize (identifying issues, mobilizing people, strategy)
I. Psychological/Spiritual Preparation
Hardest but most important
Your children must prepare to:
Witness suffering they cannot prevent:
People dying for lack of medical care
Hunger they cannot fully alleviate
Violence they cannot stop
Losses they cannot restore
Make impossible choices:
Who to help when you cannot help everyone
Whether to use violence in defense
Whether to share when sharing threatens your own survival
Who to trust when trust is dangerous
Live with grief:
For the world that was
For the people lost
For the future that could have been
For their own losses
Find meaning without comfort:
Purpose comes from community, not from success
Satisfaction from relationships, not from stuff
Identity from contribution, not from consumption
Hope from action, not from optimism
Maintain humanity under stress:
Compassion when resources are scarce
Solidarity across differences
Ethics when there's no enforcement
Cooperation when competition is rewarded
Generosity when survival is uncertain
Tools:
Community:
You cannot carry this alone
Shared grief is lighter than solitary grief
Collective meaning-making
Witnessing each other's experience
Practice:
Meditation, prayer, contemplation (whatever fits your tradition)
Physical practice (walking, yoga, martial arts)
Creative expression (art, music, writing)
Service (helping others, contributing to something larger)
Philosophy/Framework:
Stoicism (control what you can, accept what you cannot)
Buddhism (suffering exists, attachment causes more suffering, there is a path)
Existentialism (meaning is created, not given)
Indigenous wisdom (reciprocity, interconnection, long time horizons)
What NOT to do:
Seek escape (addiction, denial, fantasy)
Seek domination (power over others as meaning substitute)
Seek purity (perfectionism is paralysis)
Seek salvation (no one is coming to save anyone)
V. Timeline-Specific Guidance
2025-2027: Prepare While System Still Functions
Priority: Skills and Relationships
This is the time to:
Take training (EMT, first aid, trades, permaculture)
Build networks (meet neighbors, join organizations)
Experiment (garden, preserve food, practice skills)
Position (move to better location if possible)
Reduce dependence (eliminate debt, lower expenses)
The system still mostly works. Use that. Banks still function (for now). You can still buy tools, seeds, equipment. You can still take classes. You can still move relatively freely.
Do it now. This window closes.
2028-2032: System Stress Accelerates
Priority: Community Consolidation
By now, crises are frequent:
Infrastructure failures common
Economic volatility extreme
Political violence increasing
Climate disasters annual
Focus:
Deepen existing relationships (don't try to build new networks during crisis)
Establish mutual aid systems (food sharing, childcare, eldercare, tool libraries)
Create communication networks (that work when internet doesn't)
Develop local governance (because institutional governance is failing)
Practice crisis response (because you'll need to do it for real soon)
If you haven't positioned yet, do it now or accept higher risk.
Moving becomes harder every year. If you're in climate-disaster zone (Florida, Southwest) and haven't left, your options narrow rapidly.
2033-2037: Legitimacy Collapse
Priority: Survival and Reorganization
Systems are failing. Government is unreliable. Supply chains break regularly.
Your community must be functional:
Food production operational
Water access secured
Mutual defense arranged
Medical care possible
Decision-making working
Conflict resolution established
This is when preparation pays off or its absence kills you.
If you built relationships, learned skills, positioned well: you have odds.
If you didn't: you're dependent on systems that are failing.
2038-2045: New Systems Emerge
Priority: Shape What Comes Next
The old system is dead. New organization is emerging.
This is the moment your children can influence:
Will the new organization be authoritarian or democratic?
Will it be extractive or regenerative?
Will it be hierarchical or distributed?
Will it be violent or cooperative?
The people who built capacity, relationships, and skills during the previous phases are the ones who shape this.
If your children prepared, they're not just surviving—they're building.
VI. Worst Case Scenarios
Your children need to understand the full range:
Scenario 1: Climate Catastrophe Exceeds Models
Models are conservative. Reality might be worse.
If feedback loops accelerate:
Habitability collapses faster than projected
Food production fails across large regions
Mass migration (hundreds of millions of climate refugees)
Resource wars (water, food, habitable land)
Population collapse (billions die)
Preparation:
Same as above, but with higher urgency
Being in climate-resilient region matters even more
Community capacity for absorbing refugees determines survival
Maintaining humanity becomes hardest challenge
Scenario 2: Nuclear War
US-Russia, US-China, India-Pakistan, or regional conflicts.
Even limited nuclear war:
Nuclear winter (agriculture collapses globally for 1-3 years)
Supply chains destroyed
Millions dead immediately, billions from starvation
Radiation contamination
Societal collapse rapid and total
Preparation:
Largely impossible to survive direct effects
If you survive initial phase: food storage, radiation knowledge, community critical
Long-term: return to agriculture once radiation decays
Best odds: southern hemisphere, prepared communities
Scenario 3: Pandemic (Worse Than COVID)
High mortality (10-30%), airborne, treatment-resistant.
Effects:
Healthcare system overwhelmed immediately
Mass death, social breakdown
Supply chains collapse (workers sick/dead)
Authority collapses (fear overrides compliance)
Preparation:
Isolation capacity (can your community isolate for months?)
Food/medical supplies for extended period
Sanitation (disease management)
Community care for sick (isolation + treatment)
Trauma care (mass death affects everyone)
Scenario 4: Civil War
Political polarization becomes actual war.
If US fractures into armed conflict:
No safe regions (war is everywhere)
Supply chains destroyed
Random violence, checkpoints, militias
Forced conscription, forced displacement
Mass death, trauma, destruction
Preparation:
Community defense capacity
Avoiding strategic targets (cities, infrastructure, bases)
Having no strong political marking (dangerous to be identified)
Relationships across political lines (protection)
Escape routes (if your area becomes battlefield)
Scenario 5: Authoritarian Takeover
Democratic collapse, fascist/theocratic government.
If authoritarianism consolidates:
Surveillance state
Political violence sanctioned
Resources restricted to compliant
Resistance crushed brutally
Environmental protection ended (final extraction)
Preparation:
Operating covertly (resistance cannot be public)
Networks based on deep trust only
Skills valuable to authorities (so you're not expendable)
Or: exit (if possible, where?)
VII. What You Can Give Them Now
You're seventy. You won't see most of this unfold. But you can give them:
1. Clear Analysis
The essay you wrote. The framework that shows:
Why extraction cannot continue
Why reform cannot work fast enough
Why collapse is coming
Why preparation matters
How to think about what's coming
This is the inheritance that matters most.
2. Permission to Prepare
Your children are surrounded by people in denial. They need someone who:
Takes it seriously
Doesn't catastrophize (which is paralyzing)
Doesn't minimize (which is dangerous)
Models clear-seeing + effective action
You can be that person.
3. Resources While You Can
If you have:
Money: invest in their skills, tools, position (not inheritance they'll receive after you die—help now)
Time: teach them what you know, help them build networks
Property: land they can use for practice, refuge if needed
Connections: introductions to people who can help them
Use it while it matters.
4. Documentation
Write down:
What you've witnessed (the trajectory)
What you learned (what worked, what failed)
What matters (values, priorities, meaning-making)
What they'll need to know (practical wisdom)
They'll need this when you're gone.
5. Example
Live the preparation yourself:
Learn skills
Build community
Reduce dependence
Maintain clarity
Stay functional despite grief
They learn more from what you do than what you say.
VIII. Final Truth
Your children are heading into the hardest period of human history in generations. Possibly the hardest ever, given the scale and speed of what's coming.
You cannot protect them from this.
But you can:
Prepare them mentally (clear seeing, psychological resilience)
Equip them practically (skills, tools, resources)
Position them geographically (climate-resilient locations)
Connect them socially (community, networks, mutual aid)
Teach them organizationally (how to build power, make decisions, resolve conflict)
If you do this, their odds improve dramatically.
They won't be safe. No one will be safe. But they'll be prepared. They'll have capacity. They'll be part of communities that can survive and adapt. They'll be positioned to shape what emerges rather than just endure what happens.
That's not nothing. That's everything you can actually do.
The work starts now, while there's still time.
Every year of delay makes preparation harder. Every year of clear action makes survival more likely.
Your sadness is appropriate. The situation is genuinely terrible.
But sadness + effective action is what love looks like when you cannot prevent suffering but can influence outcomes.
That's what you have to give them.
It's enough.