June 17th - the 9th Circuit hearing. The day we find out if Judge Breyer’s devastating comparison of Trump to King George III holds up, or if appellate judges decide that presidents can simply ignore federal court orders until they find more sympathetic ears.

The stakes couldn’t be higher:

If the 9th Circuit upholds Breyer’s ruling, it establishes that even presidents must follow the law - that federal troops can’t occupy states over governors’ objections just because the president wants a show of force.

If they overturn it, we learn that constitutional law is only as strong as the most recent judicial appointment - that possession really is nine-tenths of constitutional authority when you can forum-shop your way to friendly judges.

Two Trump appointees hold the balance. The math that seemed so encouraging after Breyer’s eloquent 36-page ruling suddenly feels precarious. Will they follow the law or follow loyalty?

For Newsom, this is the ultimate test of his Sunday morning transformation. Standing before that bear flag was powerful, but only if the courts back him up. If the 9th Circuit reverses, does he comply? Does he escalate? How do you maintain that “I woke up a different guy” energy if the legal system abandons you?

For the broader resistance, June 17th determines whether the No Kings Day energy has institutional backing or just popular support. Legal victories gave the protests legitimacy. Legal defeats could fragment the coalition or radicalize it.

The constitutional question is existential: Are we still a nation where courts can check executive power, or have we crossed into something else entirely?

Tuesday will tell us whether Judge Breyer’s comparison to King George was prophetic - or whether we’re about to find out what comes after constitutional government.

The bear flag is still flying. But for how much longer?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​